Fractured Taliban: Catalyst for Political Evolution or Trigger for Regional Instability?

Iftikhar Ahmad Momand is a researcher at the Pak Institute for Peace Studies, Islamabad, Pakistan. He is a graduate of the University of Peshawar, Peace and Conflict Studies, and his research interests include terrorism/militancy in the Pakistan-Afghanistan region, discourse analysis, and great powers politics.

Taliban Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada’s call for a post-Ramadan Loya Jirga (April 2025), now postponed, arguably signaled a calculated bid for popular legitimacy amid escalating internal discord. His announcement coincided with Sirajuddin Haqqani’s return to Afghanistan after a two-month absence, during which he was sidelined by Kandahari Taliban factions in key security and counter-narcotics deliberations. These developments highlight widening fissures within a group that has historically projected unity. What are the drivers of these tensions—and what consequences might they hold for Afghanistan? In this article, writing for the Durand Dispatch, Iftikhar Ahmad Momand examines the three principal drivers of Taliban factionalism: power struggles over leadership and governance, marginalization of non-Pashtun Taliban constituencies, and competition over control of Afghanistan’s illicit economic resources. Momand argues that current internal tensions within the Taliban leadership are multidimensional, and represent a critical inflection point that could either catalyze gradual political evolution or precipitate destabilizing fragmentation—reshaping Afghanistan’s internal stability and broader regional security.

Following their takeover of Kabul after the U.S. withdrawal in August 2021, the Afghan Taliban have ruled Afghanistan under the banner of the Islamic Emirate. As Afghanistan’s government collapsed, the international community expressed uncertainty about the country’s future, urging the Taliban to form an inclusive government. When the Taliban announced their interim government in September 2021, many countries established preconditions for diplomatic recognition. Pakistan, however, stood out as the primary advocate against isolating the Taliban, arguing that the group had evolved. Despite having engaged internationally through the Doha Peace Agreement, the Taliban quickly reverted to their historically restrictive interpretation of Islamic law. They promptly renamed Afghanistan the Islamic Emirate, abolished the existing national flag and anthem, and began systematically reshaping the country’s culture, and identity. Despite this domestic crackdown on cultural expression, the Taliban have met with some success in diplomatic engagement internationally, establishing representative offices in several countries, particularly in the region, although no country has officially recognized their government.Soon after coming into power, the Taliban regime’s apparent unity soon began to fracture as internal divisions emerged, notably around the Supreme Leader’s controversial decision to ban girls from education.