Encircled and Entangled: What the Iran War Means for Afghanistan and Pakistan

The coverage of the United States, Israel and Iran conflict has understandably focused on Tehran, the Strait of Hormuz, and the fate of a regional order built over decades. Less visible are two countries that share long borders with Iran and whose fortunes have been quietly but profoundly shaped by the war. Afghanistan, landlocked and now cut off from both its eastern and western trade corridors, faces a degree of economic isolation without precedent. Pakistan, navigating between its defense commitments to Saudi Arabia, a diplomatic channel to Washington, and an unresolved border war with Afghanistan, has emerged as an unlikely but fragile intermediary. This article examines what the Iran war means for both, and why the answer matters beyond the immediate theatre of conflict.

Encircled and Entangled: What the Iran War Means for Afghanistan and Pakistan

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, initiating what has become the most consequential Middle Eastern conflict since the Gulf Wars. U.S. and Israeli forces conducted hundreds of strikes in the first twelve hours alone, killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggering a regional escalation, well beyond Iran’s borders. Iran retaliated against Israel, U.S. bases across the Gulf, and even Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, a joint U.S.-UK military base in the Indian Ocean..