Not Your Father’s Afghanistan: The West’s Blind Spot on al-Qaeda’s Resurgence

Editor’s Note: Four years after the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the West’s attention has shifted elsewhere—great power competition, Ukraine, the Middle East. But as Graham Aikin argues in this deeply sourced analysis, that pivot may have come at a cost. Al-Qaeda and its affiliates have quietly reconstituted under Taliban protection, operating from a network of training camps that arguably dwarfs anything that existed before 9/11. Billions in humanitarian aid flows into a system with little oversight, while fighters cycle through facilities built on the ruins of former CIA installations. U.S. and UK intelligence chiefs are now sounding the alarm publicly—a rare move that suggests the threat picture has changed. This is essential reading for anyone tracking the long-term trajectory of militancy in South Asia and beyond.

**This article was first published on King’s Centre for the Study of Intelligence Insights blog and is republished here with the author’s permission. Graham Aikin is a part-time PhD student in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, where his research examines the resurgence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan following the 2021 withdrawal. His academic work reflects sustained engagement with the events of 9/11, their antecedents, and the evolution of the so-called Global War on Terror. His Master’s dissertation analyzed the role of the UK Investigatory Powers Commissioner in overseeing intelligence agencies’ treatment of detainees and the sharing of intelligence with liaison partners. Beyond academia, he works closely with the 9/11 Memorial & Museum in New York and volunteers annually at the official commemorations. Contact Graham @ graham.aikin@kcl.ac.uk

On 19 September 2025, the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center released an unclassified intelligence product warning of the threat posed by al-Qaeda. This marked the first time such a threat assessment had been disseminated by the U.S. intelligence community since the withdrawal of Western forces from Afghanistan in 2021. It highlights, along with other recent coverage detailed below, the risks posed by a resurgent al-Qaeda and other transnational jihadi terrorist groups. This piece will address Afghanistan’s role as a permissive safe haven and sanctuary for these groups, highlight recent intelligence on their operational capabilities, and discusses diplomatic efforts and other initiatives that may offer some cause for optimism amongst observers of al-Qaeda’s re-emerging threat.